Review Article |
Corresponding author: Dániel Fróna ( frona.daniel@econ.unideb.hu ) Academic editor: Davy McCracken
© 2021 Dániel Fróna, János Szenderák, Mónika Harangi-Rákos.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Fróna D, Szenderák J, Harangi-Rákos M (2021) Economic effects of climate change on global agricultural production. Nature Conservation 44: 117-139. https://doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.44.64296
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Climate change seems to be larger, more complex and more unpredictable than any other environmental problem. This review deals with the economic effects of climate change on global agricultural production. The causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse, while populations in low-income countries are increasingly exposed to its negative effects. Supplying the population with food is possible with increased agricultural production, but this often occurs under unsustainable circumstances. Increased agricultural production is also one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In this research we highlight some of the important connections between climate change, population growth and agricultural production.
Agriculture, climate change, food security, global challenges
Currently, the combination of the rapidly changing economic environment, unbridled competition for natural resources, and the economic crisis have posed several challenges for agricultural and food companies. The growth of competition and the dynamically changing external environment are becoming increasingly difficult to deal with. The ability to respond in a timely manner to changing environmental impacts and regulations is essential. Agriculture is arguably one of the sectors which is most damaged by climate change. The food industry and the agricultural sector make a significant contribution to climate change, but are also particularly vulnerable to its effects. Technological progress aims to mitigate climate change effects and this makes it more important than ever to recruit, retain and train skilled employees (
The overall aim of the article is to undertake a comprehensive review of the topic by processing the relevant international and scientific literature. Food security, climate change and subsistence security are interlinked at both global and national levels. Qualitative research is suitable for exploring and synthesizing the results of previously conducted relevant research activities. The methodological examination of the data analysis process is often limited, while there are no systematic rules for the analysis of qualitative data. When raising research questions, authors need to consider the scope of keywords and topics that will be used to support early scoping exercises and subsequent literature reviews. Keywords provide a compact representation of the content of the document. In the case of this article the keywords were the following: climate change, agriculture, biodiversity, bio economy, water management, and their combinations. The economic impact of climate change on agricultural production was analyzed by processing the results of the relevant scientific literature. These research studies were mostly searched in the Google Scholar and databases and results were based on significant studies appearing between 2004 and 2021. The time period was selected to cover almost two decades and to ensure that the relevant research areas could be covered. At the same time, the latest databases of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) were analyzed. We examined the trends between 1960 and 2018, where the data range was limited by data availability. Based on these data sources, the most important results were collected in order to achieve a comprehensive review of the effects. Graphical representations can help readers better interpret and understand the results. We used RStudio to visualize the data from the aforementioned databases. The program supports the graphical display of the analyzed data. Comparing results is difficult, because most results can be seen as a rough approximation of future development.
Climate change is an increasing risk factor for the world’s hungry and malnourished people because almost 822 million people are not fed satisfactorily (
The side effects associated with population growth are among the primary drivers of global change. Therefore, it is essential to become familiar with the demographic developments that have taken place and are expected in the near future. Demographic booms were linked to the development of agricultural technologies. The development of agriculture is estimated to have started at about 10 000 BC, when the global population was about only 2.4 million people (
The increasing global population between 1950 and 2018. Source: authors’ own editing, based on the database of FAOSTAT, 2020 (
The differences were important, since the populations of Africa and Asia are considerably greater than in Europe or in Americas.
The changes in food consumption cannot be explained by population growth itself. It is beyond debate that the amount of food consumed is clearly influenced by the size of the population, while the quality of the food consumed depends on the average income of households (
Population growth by regions between 1950 and 2018. Source: authors’ own editing based on the database of FAOSTAT (
The harmful causes of climate change also contribute to soil degradation. Degradation can also be attributed to direct and indirect anthropogenic activities. Figure
Global agricultural land use change between 1961 and 2017. Source: authors’ own editing based on the database of the FAO (
Approximately 10% of the global surface is covered by glaciers, another 19% is comprised of barren land – deserts and dry salt areas. More than a half of the habitable land is used by agriculture. Another 37% is covered by forest, and 11% is bush and grasslands. The remaining 1% is the built environment, i.e. urban areas, which include towns, villages, highways, roads and other human infrastructure. Land use is unequally distributed between animals and plants intended for human consumption. Land (with pasture) for the produce of animal feed is responsible for 77% of global agricultural land (
Climate change and climatic extremes might greatly affect the food chain, from the production process to consumption. Factors caused by humankind, including global food production, increase the average global temperature by 0.2 °C per decade (
There is general agreement that the global warming tendencies of the last century are most likely due to human activities (
Global temperature change between 1961 and 2018. Source: authors’ own editing based on the database of the FAO (
The water scarcity problem is one of the most urgent climate-related issues requiring a solution.
Water critically influences plant productivity and food production, and is an essential factor in food production processes, while it also plays an important part in food security. Changes in water demand, availability and quality caused by climate change will influence water management outcomes. Adjustment measures needed to ensure adequate water management require both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Nevertheless, the water requirements of crop production have increased due to the spread of irrigated agriculture (
As the result of higher temperature, water scarcity, higher atmospheric carbon concentrations and extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods, food production is likely to decrease. Weather disturbances and climate change might affect food prices and thus access to food (
Energy consumption and utilization are critical points of climate change research, especially the food – energy – water nexus.
Figure
Global energy consumption in agriculture between 1970 and 2012. Source: authors’ own editing based on the database of the FAO (
Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are closely connected. Changes in energy consumption are mostly affected by carbon dioxide emissions in different regions globally. Based on the results, reductions in GHG emissions and energy consumption would require much stronger policy initiatives than those so far discussed by policy makers. The reason behind this is that energy conservation policies are expected to slow down the current stage of economic growth (
Figure
Fertilizer use in the EU, OECD and in the least developed countries between 1961 and 2017. Source: authors’ own editing based on the database of the FAO (
Nitrogen fertilizer increases the mineralization of soil organic matter, resulting in a reduction in the natural organic matter stock. This has led to a great deal of controversy in achieving long-term sustainability. In some parts of the planet, enormous and uncontrolled synthetic N-fertilization has had a damaging effect on the environment (
The expansion of agriculture has led to one of the greatest adverse effects on habitat, changing the environment and exerting further pressures on biodiversity. The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List estimated that 28 000 species are threatened with extinction, while agriculture alone is responsible for the extinction of 24 000 species. However, it is also known that these effects can be reduced, either through dietary changes, by replacing some meat consumption with plant-based alternatives, or through innovations in technology (
Although biodiversity is essential to agriculture and human well-being, it is declining at an unprecedented rate (
Biodiversity and its related areas can be analyzed only in a broad context.
In most cases, scientific research focuses on the negative effects of climate change, but
A major issue is that we do not know yet how mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could reduce biodiversity impacts. Climate change is expected to have a large effect at every system level.
Climate change affects areas which have a great importance, not only in biodiversity conservation, but in providing a wide range of socioeconomic services. According to
Due to its complexity, it is extremely hard to include biodiversity in environmental assessments in an effective way (
The use of scenario analyses comes from military planning, but it was also extended to the strategic planning of businesses and other organizations in the early 1960s, where policymakers systematically analyzed the long-term consequences of investments and other strategic decisions. The aim of working with different scenarios is not to foretell the future, but to better perceive the uncertainties in the continuously changing environment in order to make decisions that have a crucial effect on a wide range of potential future issues (
Figure
A sequential approach to climate change. Source: authors’ own construction based on
Climatic scenarios describe possible future climatic circumstances. They are used to help assess the impacts of climate change and the options of adaptation, while providing information to decision-makers (
The results of the several consistent models show the strong negative effects of climate change, especially in regions where developing countries are concentrated. Simulations that take into account specific nitrogen stress outcomes have significantly more severe consequences of climate change and have an impact on adaptation planning (
Some of the tools available:
Other plants or food sources that are vitally important for humanity might be affected by climate change. The greater proportion of research deals with the four main field crops – wheat, rice, maize and soybeans – in the case of negative climate change impacts, despite the fact that many other crops are essential for achieving food security and healthy nutrition. Climate issues cause modifications in agriculture; therefore temperature and water resources affect livestock farming as well. FAO studies claim that the most harmful event related to climate change is drought (
A changing climate might exacerbate losses within the global food system. About a third of the food produced by farmers is lost between production and the market in low- and middle-income countries. The proportion in high-income countries is almost the same, with a similar percentage being wasted at different points of the food chain (
The production, transport and consumption of food reaches far beyond the production areas of farmers (and producer countries). Therefore, the food system approach offers a better opportunity for analysis. The food systems approach offers significant advances in terms of adapting to and mitigating climate change. By explicitly acknowledging the fundamental links between consumer demand, dietary change and production, it supports the much broader integration of actors and institutions. However, the intensification of climate responses requires further research (
Climate change is affecting developing countries in particular, where urbanization, growing water scarcity and a lack of technological development remain the most crucial challenges to be dealt with. Technology and knowledge transfer have so far provided only limited assistance to developing countries. By formulating efficient adaptation strategies, the negative effects of climate change on food security can be mitigated or even avoided. Within the food system, adaptation activities are aimed at reducing vulnerability and enhancing the flexibility of the system to climate change. In a few regions, extended climate events are changing agro-ecological zones. Adaptation to extreme experiences is intended to minimize damage, modify hazards and avoid damaging effects or share losses, thereby creating a more flexible system. In addition to current and expected climate change, adaptation requires both technological (new varieties produced by biotechnology or breeding) and non-technological (e.g. land management, markets, food change) solutions.
Without a collective approach, climate change effects cannot be mitigated sufficiently. Even with the tremendous efforts made at present, several areas are lagging behind. However, several future directions have been clearly outlined in the research literature. With increasing populations, growing demand and changing diets are expected in the future. These demands can only be satisfied with further productivity gains, since agricultural land expansion is extremely limited. Meat consumption, especially beef and other red meats, should be limited within reasonable limits. This is a viable, but difficult task, since currently meat substitutes are not widely accepted among consumers and large-scale production is still a problem (
By reducing the current levels of food loss and food waste, several emission “gaps” between the current and the expected levels of emissions can be reduced. This would require a complex strategy along the whole food value chain. Furthermore, food loss and waste solutions should be linked to existing problems, such as plastic waste pollution, since the food industry is one of the major users of plastics. Finally, one of the most urgent problems is water scarcity. Since water supply distribution is very unequal globally, innovative solutions are needed in agriculture to achieve further productivity gains. By implementing precision agriculture methods, the whole production process can be monitored and controlled. Finally, data collection, transparency and interdisciplinary approaches will gain further importance in the future as well.
In terms of biodiversity connections, achieving socioeconomic viability and preserving the cultural and natural heritage of HNV landscapes are of great importance, although climate change inherently affects these regions. At the same time, it is hard to quantify these effects and their possible future directions without suitable data and assessment methods. Evaluating these effects would require an even more complex approach with highly detailed data. Existing models should be extended to include different social and economic interactions, as well. According to the
The solution to these problems also depends on collective and interdisciplinary efforts and cooperation between public authorities and the scientific community. Adaption to climate change and to its negative effects causes a significant transformation in the interaction between global society and the natural ecosystem. Government agencies have issued several climate emergency statements. In addition to policy makers, cooperation between the private sector and the public needs to be established to overcome the harmful impacts of climate change.
Supported by the ÚNKP-20-3-II New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology from the resources of the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund. University of Debrecen, Károly Ihrig Doctoral School of Management and Business.